Anticipation is the thoughtful process of predicting future events based on current and historical socio-political processes in a national, regional and geopolitical context. Respecting the well-known sentence “paper does not burn”, i.e. the written word cannot be erased, I humbly, without claiming exclusivity, present to you my anticipation of future developments. The same is mainly based on the historical geopolitical processes that determine the present. History is defined in a variety of ways, but in this case I was guided by the definition of a dear friend of mine, history is “judicial practices” and as such does not allow improvisations or new court rulings for “rez iudicata”.
All processes are in fact a chain of events, but not every event becomes part of the chain, many end up in the “dumps of history” depending on how much they correspond with the current processes, that is, with the “judicial practices” established by history. These days, in Macedonia, an event started that can have a crucial impact, negative or positive, on national, regional and even geopolitical processes. It is about an event that should decide the future of Macedonia through – Constitutional changes. Usually the event started with the stereotypical statements of the two supposedly antagonistic parties VMRO-DPMNE and SDS. Unfortunately, for us mere mortals, we did not hear anything new, whitewashed, trivial, pathetic speeches, about the care of our suffering people and their identity, written hastily in the sidelines of the “blue palace” and “white champita” of these political mastodons. Apart from the fact that both parties are buried in their politically meaningless “trenches”, with the same goal of failing the event and disrupting the process, we did not hear valid arguments “pro et contra” regarding what is essential for the state of Macedonia, the benefits or losses from the entry of Macedonia into accession negotiations with the EU. The hypocrisy of our political “paving the road to hell with good intentions” continued.
The current geopolitical processes, primarily determined by the events in Ukraine, create a bilateral causal relationship between the EU and Macedonia. The cause-and-effect relationships of the two sides, the EU and Macedonia, are determined by the Constitutional changes in Macedonia and their influence on the future political processes in Macedonia and in the EU.
Macedonia, a member of the EU, is synonymous with democracy and freedom. The dynamic civilizational development of Macedonia is above all the social, economic and political processes that directly determine every segment of our life. Inauguration of the citizen in the sovereign of the state, relaxation of imposed inter-national tensions and divisions based on racial, national, religious affiliation. Protection of human rights and the right to freedom of speech. Establishing true democratic relations, rule of law, justice and fairness. Placing the institutions in the right place at the service of the citizens, strengthening their democratic capacity. An independent judiciary, professional police as well as security services that work to protect the national interests of Macedonia. Economic development, relaxation of budget problems, investments and creation of space for increased wages and well-being of citizens. Modernization of agriculture and ensured placement of agricultural products and their processing. Creation of a welfare state, overcoming social inequalities and division of castes according to social status, equal care for the sick, disabled, children, old people as well as for the able-bodied population. Solidarity between generations, moral and ethical norms will be embedded in each of us, humanism will get its true meaning.
Macedonia in the EU means above all being an equal member in the company of the powerful and rich, using their “umbrella”, the survival of the state, security, economic development and well-being of Macedonia are inevitable. As members of the EU, we create an opportunity to be in the same country with our children, who left for European countries, and thus make the probability of their return to their “father’s home” a reality. By joining the EU, the Macedonian people realized their eternal dream after 110 years, once again all Macedonians in the same state of Vardar, Egej and Pirin. Space does not allow me to list all the benefits of EU membership that fulfill the content of a socially just and humane state.
Macedonia outside the EU will be a territory, a wasteland, a “no name” state, without roots, left at the mercy of the Balkan political winds, the slightest breeze in the geopolitical processes will blow it away, only the legends that such a state once existed will remain. About “unfaithful Thomas” let me clarify. The terrible sound of war drums from the Russian-Ukrainian conflict will stop “today – tomorrow”, then follows a territorial reset, recompositing. Many critical points, in this part of the world which is leaning towards the territory of current conflict, will be resolved in the course of a “Peace Conference”. Beyond the territorial ambiguities between Russia and Ukraine, there are a number of declared territorial problems that the states want to resolve on the basis of what they interpret to be hereditary rights. Example: Poland – Ukraine, Poland – Germany, Hungary – Ukraine, Moldova – Ukraine – Russia, Romania – Moldova – Ukraine, Hungary – Serbia, Croatia – Serbia, Croatia – Bosnia, Serbia – Bosnia, Serbia – Kosovo, Serbia – Bulgaria, Bulgaria – Romania, Bulgaria – Turkey, Bulgaria – Greece, Turkey – Greece, Greece – Albania. When these processes begin, the Balkan war drums will start beating, a call for new bloody Balkan wars. In such a constellation of relations, “déjà vu” for the Balkans, Macedonia will be a coin for exchange, its survival in today’s format is in the domain of “science fiction”. However, on the geographical maps, which the states refer to as a hereditary right, Macedonia does not exist. There is an area – a territory that for a long time was called Rumelia and sometimes Macedonia. But the STATE OF MACEDONIA, unfortunately for the pseudo-patriots, but before the facts and the gods are silent, DOES NOT EXIST!
In the meantime, Macedonia will be ruled by organized crime created and operationalized by the oligarchic-political structure. The specificity of this structure is to rule with autocratic measures without right and justice for the ordinary citizen, torture by the authorities, corrupt institutions, the police, the security services, the judiciary. To be clear, the feudalization of Macedonia will continue, the local feudal lords will be the owners of our lives. Corruption will completely cover society, crime, murder, violence, drug addiction, poverty, meaninglessness of life, apathy accompanied by an increasing number of suicides, debauchery and immorality… All this will become our everyday life!
The EU with Macedonia continues the processes of strengthening the “United Europe” cause, as Danny De Rougemont will say in “Twenty-Eight Centuries of Europe”. Namely, after the end of the process of economic unification, in recent years, Europe has entered a process of political unification aimed at its factorization on the “The Grand Chessboard”, as Brzezinski would say. But although in the economic processes, especially with the common currency, the states separated part of their sovereignty, when the day came for its political definition, the member states, primarily due to the great eastern influence, began to talk about their “sanctity”, state sovereignty. Specifically, underwater rocks began to emerge to disable the process. Today, Macedonia is the “place d’armes” of Huntington’s “Clash of civilizations”! If the EU wins this victory and brings Macedonia into its company, it will make the biggest step towards its emancipation into an independent political entity with respectable power and a strong influence on the turbulent geopolitical processes!
The EU without Macedonia loses the opportunity to factorize, unite and realize the noble idea for the purpose of its existence, a united and democratic Europe. Bowing to unscrupulous foreign interests, which are created far from the Balkans but implemented by EU member states, will show its impotence. If it loses this “war”, it is put in a position to enter into a spiral of processes of stratification and divisions inside the union. In the context of this, apparently European politicians and the Brussels bureaucracy have forgotten an ancient warning, to remind them of Winston Churchill’s words – Watch out for the Balkans, it’s the soft underbelly of Europe! These words of the wise Churchill are initiated by several historical “judicial practices” of Europe. The initial capsules, for the cataclysmic war destruction during the bloody 20th century, were always in the Balkan “powder keg”. If he loses the “war” for Macedonia, which is actually a “war” for Europe, he will confirm his impotence, which the world’s political authorities are talking about, will begin a process of its free fall with unforeseeable consequences, as Douglas Murry would say “The Strange Death of Europe”. Nixon’s words, in the conversation with de Gaulle, will prove true, “if you want a united Europe, model it on the United States of America, everything else will be a failed attempt.” In this context for the future of Europe, Benjamin Franklin’s words from his “Letters from Paris” from 1777 inevitably come to mind. “Here men in all quarters think that our cause is the cause of the whole human race, and that, in defending our liberty, we are fighting for theirs.” Obviously, the United States can only help the resourceless and uninventive Brussels bureaucrats with its fighting humanism in the creation of democratic values in the Balkans, thereby throwing a “lifeline” to Europe, once and for all!
This writing of mine may be politically incorrect in one part, but it is a reflection of the reality through which the dilemma of David Engels “What to do?” – Living in the fall of Europe!”
Oliver Andonov